The Activist Investor Blog
The Activist Investor Blog
Apple’s Cash, An Accounting
[Note: updated 2/11/14 to reflect comments about AAPL operating cash flow results]
Cash as of 12/28/13: $159 billion
Debt as of 12/28/13: $17 billion
Net cash as of 12/28/13: $142 billion
Operating cash flow generated, FY2013: $54 billion
Forecast net operating cash flow, FY2014: who knows? how about $50 billion after capex?
Expected cash as of 12/31/15, including $50 billion/year of net operating cash flow for eight quarters, before share repurchase and dividends: $242 billion
Share repurchase authorized through 12/31/15: $60 billion
Shares repurchased through 12/28/13: $28 billion
Shares repurchased since 12/28/13: $14 billion, per Tim Cook interview in the Wall Street Journal
Share repurchase remaining through 12/31/15: $18 billion
Dividend “budgeted” through 12/31/15: $40 billion
Dividend paid through 12/28/13: $16 billion
Dividends remaining through 12/31/15: $24 billion, or $3 billion per quarter, or $3.33/share for 900 million shares for a 2.5% dividend yield, meh
Icahn proposal: $50 billion share repurchase during FY14
Progress against Icahn proposal: $19 billion repurchased ($5 billion in FQ1 2014 and another $14 billion since)
Increase in previous share repurchase authorization that Icahn proposal requires: $13 billion, to $73 billion
Opponents of Icahn proposal: ISS (“a shareholder resolution that would micromanage the company's capital allocation process”), NYC Comptroller (“a quick financial hit off a large company”), CalPERS (“We don't want the company to be distracted by short-term noise”)
Status of Icahn proposal: withdrawn on 2/10/14
Forecast net cash on 12/31/15, after known and expected share repurchase and dividends, and expected operating cash flow: $186 billion
Provision for operational expense variability: $64 billion (20% downside variability in $40 billion in quarterly COGS and opex, or $8 billion per quarter, for eight quarters through 12/31/15, without offsetting product price increases)
Net cash remaining for investment: $122 billion
Largest single Apple acquisition ever: $0.4 billion
Total value of Apple acquisitions since 1988: $3 billion
Facebook, Inc. market cap on 2/10/14: $162 billion
Impact of Icahn proposal on forecast net cash: 7%
Investors who are puzzled why responsible shareholders would oppose a paltry $13 billion increase in share repurchase authority, seeing as the company has all that cash sitting around now, another $100 billion to come in the next two years, ample cushion for variability in expenses, few attractive acquisition candidates, no large ones, and the customary doubts about management ability to spend money wisely, say on ostentatious office projects: many.
Tuesday, February 11, 2014