1. We first accounted for Apple’s cash earlier this year. Carl Icahn since mixed it up with the company, and just last week called for more share repurchases. As Apple announces its full-year results, we update our accounting.
   

Cash as of 9/27/14: $155 billion

Debt as of 9/27/14: $35 billion

Net cash as of 9/27/14: $120 billion

Operating cash flow generated, FY2014: $60 billion

Forecast net operating cash flow, FY2015: Icahn estimates $56 billion, with $70 billion the next year, and $87 billion(!) the year after that. Let’s make the math easier and call it $60 billion.

Expected net cash as of 12/31/15 before share repurchase and dividends, with $20 billion for net operating cash flow in Q1 of FY 2016: $200 billion

Share repurchase authorized through 12/31/15: $90 billion

Shares repurchased through 9/27/14: $68 billion

Share repurchase remaining through 12/31/15: $22 billion

Expected dividend through 12/31/15: $15 billion, or $3 billion per quarter, or $0.50/share for 6 billion shares for a 2.0% dividend yield, meh

Forecast net cash through 12/31/15, after expected share repurchase and dividends: $163 billion

Provision for operational expense variability: $40 billion (20% downside variability in $40 billion in quarterly COGS and opex, or $8 billion per quarter, for five quarters through 12/31/15, without offsetting product price increases)

Net cash remaining for investment, after variability provision: $123 billion

Largest single Apple acquisition ever (Beats): $3 billion

Total value of Apple acquisitions since 1988: $6 billion

Facebook, Inc. market cap on 10/20/14: $200 billion, the least expensive of the most desirable candidates, unless you want to consider Netflix ($22 billion) or eBay ($61 billion) or something much less attractive like that

Icahn’s most recent proposal: $100 billion in additional share repurchases, say beyond the $90 billion already announced, although he takes his forecast out a couple more years, so we should extend the cash analysis through FY2017, and dial back his fantastically optimistic cash flow estimates to only $60 billion per year, and add another $100 billion to the cash balance after 12/31/15, and conclude the additional share repurchases that Icahn wants would leave investors with the same $123 billion we’ll have on 12/31/15

Investors who think Apple can afford Icahn’s proposal: many