The Activist Investor Blog
The Activist Investor Blog
Apple’s Cash, Once Again
We first accounted for Apple’s cash in early 2014, and again later in the year. Since then, investor and analyst Eric Jackson questioned the company’s entire share repurchase and dividend program, instead suggesting the company should have spent the cash on M&A (Tesla, Twitter, Pinterest) and R&D (batteries, iCloud). As Apple announces its first quarter results, we again update our accounting.
Cash as of 12/27/14: $179 billion, wow.
Debt as of 12/27/14: $36 billion
Net cash as of 12/27/14: $143 billion
Operating cash flow generated, CY2014: $71 billion
Forecast net operating cash flow, CY2015: How about another $70 billion?
Expected net cash as of 12/31/15 before share repurchases and dividends: $213 billion
Share repurchase authorized through 12/31/15: $90 billion
Shares repurchased through 12/27/14: $73 billion
Share repurchase remaining through 12/31/15: $17 billion
Expected dividend during CY2015: $12 billion, or $3 billion per quarter, or $1.80/share for 6 billion shares for a 1.5% dividend yield, meh
Forecast net cash through 12/31/15, after expected share repurchase and dividends: $184 billion
Provision for operational expense variability: $32 billion (20% downside variability in $40 billion in quarterly COGS and opex, or $8 billion per quarter, for four quarters through 12/31/15, without offsetting product price increases)
Net cash remaining for investment, after variability provision: $152 billion
Capex: $3.2 billion for QE 12/27/14, how about $15 billion annualized?
Interest and dividend income: $523 million for QE 12/27/14, or $2.1 billion annualized, with significant interest rate derivatives that could change that figure, and which implies a 1.4% rate of return, which while great as corporate treasury goes, pales in comparison to what investors could do investing in their own portfolios
Total Apple acquisitions since 1988, including Beats: $6 billion
Tesla, Twitter, and Pinterest purchase price: $100 billion, at Jackson’s estimated valuation, although we don’t know what we get other than Elon Musk, millions of new Twitter bot accounts, and a much smaller version of Google
Battery and iCloud R&D cost: $20 billion, at Jackson’s generous estimate
Investors who think Apple should spend $100 billion on speculative M&A with highly uncertain benefit: Eric Jackson
Investors who think Apple should spend $100 billion on further share repurchases, leaving $52 billion for R&D, capex, and whatever other deals make sense: many, many others
Tuesday, February 10, 2015